A recent study published in April 2025 in the journal Global Environmental Change Advances (here) reveals that climate change is causing a wide redistribution of species that can drastically affect the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity conservation.
The research developed a measure of climate zone velocity – the speed and direction with which weather conditions move through time and space – to assess the exposure of global PAs to climate risks in future scenarios. The results are alarming: by mid-century (period 2040-2069), about 20% of the global terrestrial protected area could experience changes in climate zones in all future scenarios, and more than half of terrestrial PAs will face average speeds greater than 0.1 km per year.
More findings from the survey:
Against the backdrop of high greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, the speed of climate zone change will continue to intensify through the end of this century, potentially impacting 40 percent of the existing protected area. This pessimistic scenario represents a situation with little mitigation of emissions and continued high dependence on fossil fuels.
Current climate zones for approximately 15% of the land area are expected to shift out of the existing PA network and into human-modified areas, indicating that the current network will not absorb these changes.
About 15% of the current protected land area will also be exposed to unprecedented emerging weather conditions or loss of existing climate conditions, potentially compromising the effectiveness of the protected area network.
The most vulnerable areas are concentrated in North America, Europe, North Asia, the Amazon, southern Africa, and central Australia. Protected areas with specific characteristics – greater extent, higher latitudes, lower elevations, and less topographic heterogeneity – are more likely to face these climate changes.
The study also looked at the spatial patterns of these changes, revealing that only 25% of the projected changes will be absorbed within existing PAs. Approximately 8.3% of the global protected area will change to a new climate, with no equivalent climate zone within a 1000 km radius, and 6.6% will experience disappearing climates.
The transformation of 8.3% of the global protected area to new climates, without analogues within a radius of 1000 km, poses a significant threat to current ecosystems. These new climatic conditions may trigger a profound reorganization of biological communities, as native species may not be adapted to survive in these unprecedented environments.
As a result, we may observe population declines, local extinctions, and the arrival of species more adapted to new conditions, altering fundamental ecological interactions. This disturbance in ecosystem services can affect everything from the availability of water and food to pest control and pollination, even impacting human communities that depend on these natural resources.
The evidence points to the urgent need for strategic and adaptive conservation planning that explicitly considers changes in climate zones. The study suggests that expanding the boundaries of existing PAs or creating corridors to connect them can support species migration and conservation.
To demonstrate how these approaches can be implemented, the research presented a regional case study focused on Yellowstone National Park in the USA. The study mapped climate connectivity characteristics and spatial patterns of change in climate zones, identifying priority areas for biodiversity corridors and management strategies that could facilitate species adaptation to climate change.
Climate zone velocity analyses offer a multivariate and ecologically relevant tool for understanding risks to biodiversity, and can be applied at various scales to support more effective conservation planning in the face of climate change. The development of protected areas that account for these changes will be key to ensuring the resilience of conservation interventions in the future.
Article courtesy of Permian Brasil
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