This year marks an important milestone for the Katingan Mentaya Project: we are carrying out our very first baseline renewal. It has been a steep learning curve for the team, but also a valuable opportunity. Rather than treating the renewal as a box-ticking exercise, we approached it as a chance to strengthen our models, incorporate the latest science, and ensure that the carbon credits generated by the project remain of the highest quality.
What is a baseline renewal?
In a REDD+ project like Katingan Mentaya, the baseline is a reference scenario; it represents what would likely happen to the forests and peatlands without the project. By comparing this scenario with the real outcomes achieved on the ground, we can calculate how much deforestation has been avoided and how many emissions have been prevented.
Because landscapes, policies, and science evolve, projects are required to renew their baselines periodically. This ensures that credits remain accurate, relevant, and credible. For us, this renewal is the first of its kind, and we have taken the opportunity to go beyond the minimum requirements and embrace advances in both policy and science.
Updating the Baseline with Policy Changes
The process began with a policy analysis to identify any new regulations introduced since the project start date. Several were identified, but one was particularly important: the 2019 Ministry of Environment and Forestry Regulation (P.10/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUML.1/3/2019), which requires plantations to delineate and protect the “peak of the peat dome.”
This regulation had direct implications for our baseline scenario. We therefore updated our baseline model to designate these newly delineated areas as protected, reducing the land available for conversion in the baseline and ensuring that the model reflects both regulatory requirements and common practice.
Reassessing Proxy Areas
Another essential step was to review our proxy areas; the comparable sites we use to estimate what would happen without the project. Some of the original proxies no longer met the criteria. The area of one of them had changed significantly in ways that no longer satisfied environmental requirements, while another had its license revoked due to mismanagement.
We identified and added new proxy areas to replace them, ensuring that they met the requirements set by the methodology. With these final proxy areas established, we then recalculated the deforestation rate, using a 20-year historical period as required by the methodology. This updated deforestation rate was applied to the baseline model to estimate the likely pace of forest conversion year by year.
Strengthening the Science and Methods
The baseline renewal also provided an opportunity to improve the scientific foundations of the project. We introduced several upgrades that were not required but that significantly enhance accuracy and transparency.
Together, these improvements significantly enhance the scientific robustness of the project, ensuring that our emissions estimates are as accurate and credible as possible.
Why This Matters
These efforts go far beyond compliance. By upgrading our models and adopting the latest scientific advances, we are setting a higher standard for how baselines are modelled. This work strengthens the accuracy and credibility of our Verified Carbon Units (VCUs), while also reinforcing the trust placed in us by communities, partners, and buyers who rely on the project to deliver genuine climate benefits.
Next Steps
At present, we are in the midst of the verification process with the Validation and Verification Body (VVB). This independent assessment is the final step in confirming that our renewed baseline and upgraded methods meet the rigorous requirements of the methodology.
Completing our first baseline renewal is a major undertaking. For us, it is more than a regulatory obligation: it is a chance to raise the bar, embrace scientific innovation, and demonstrate our commitment to continuous improvement.
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